Bristol Bears v Northampton Saints: Tom Vickers' big match preview

Competition: Gallagher Premiership

Date and kick-off time: Friday, March 3, 2023, 7.45pm

Venue: Ashton Gate, Bristol

Weather forecast: 7c, cloudy

Live television coverage: BT Sport 1

Referee: Ian Tempest

Bristol Bears: Piutau; Naulago, Radradra, Williams, Ibitoye; MacGinty, Randall (c); Y Thomas, Thacker, Lahiff; Vui, Batley; Jeffries, Harding, Bradbury.

Replacements: Byrne, Woolmore, Kloska, Luatua, Heenan, Uren, Bedlow, Lloyd.

Saints: Hendy; Skosan, Dingwall (c), Hutchinson, Collins; F Smith, Braley; E Waller, S Matavesi, Petch; Salakaia-Loto, Moon; Coles, Scott-Young, Graham.

Replacements: Cruse, A Waller, Hill, Wilkins, Hinkley, Garside, J Grayson, Litchfield.

Not considered for Saints selection: Juarno Augustus, George Furbank, Mike Haywood, Danny Hobbs-Awoyemi, Emmanuel Iyogun, Tom James, Matt Proctor, James Ramm, Ollie Sleightholme.

International duty: David Ribbans, Courtney Lawes, Lewis Ludlam, Alex Mitchell, Tommy Freeman

Most recent meeting: Saturday, October 29, 2022: Saints 45 Bristol Bears 31 (Gallagher Premiership)

Tom’s preview: Years ago, you could head into the final five games of a Premiership season with a fairly clear idea of where you were going to end up.

There were teams you were very confident you would beat, and teams you approached with trepidation.

But that is definitely not the case these days.

And every one of the five matches that lie in wait for Saints have a huge amount of unpredictability about them.

Will Bristol continue their fine form after winning five of their past six matches?

Will Bath turn in the kind of away performance that almost saw them win at Sale Sharks not so long ago?

Will London Irish put it all together in their St Patrick’s Day fixture?

Will Saracens field their big guns and pack a traditional punch at the Gardens?

And will Newcastle continue their fine record of upsetting the odds on their final Friday night of the season at Kingston Park?

These are the sizeable challenges that lie in wait for a Saints side who currently sit third in the league standings.

It is a very nice position to be in, but one that is certainly not comfortable with so many teams ready to pounce on any sort of mistake.

Saints were a member of the chasing pack themselves last season, flying up the standings to eventually book a play-off place.

Now they go from hunters to hunted in the pursuit of a shot at the end-of-season shootout.

But the messages have been good in recent weeks.

There are few looks at league tables from the players.

And if they do look at how the Premiership is shaping up, they are eager to focus on how far they are from the top two rather than the other eight sides.

Saints can only afford to concentrate on themselves because they have their destiny in their own hands.

But they will know just how difficult these hurdles that lie in wait will be to overcome.

They have certainly been buoyed by recent displays, picking up 19 points from a possible 25 in the Premiership in 2023.

And with so many key players still missing, they will have to rely on their squad depth once again this week.

They will be up against a Bristol side who have struggled for form at times but who are now firmly back in the saddle.

Their only defeat in their past six games was a dramatic 20-19 defeat at Saracens at the end of January.

And Pat Lam’s men still harbour pay-off hopes.

Saints have seen off four of their other rivals in recent months, and how they would love to repeat the trick here.

Tom’s prediction: Bristol may currently be ninth in the table, but, make no mistake, this is such a difficult fixture. The Bears have their swagger back and they will fancy their chances with Saints without so many regular starters. But I’m keeping the faith with Phil Dowson’s side. Bristol Bears 32 Saints 35.