Councillor raises concerns about 'avalanche' of pupils to North Northamptonshire state schools amid VAT debate

North Northants Council (NNC) debated a motion on Thursday (October 17) which called for their leader to write to the Secretary of State to ask for more information on how many children are predicted to transition into the state system and what help they would receive to cope with the extra demand.

The Government has announced that private schools will be taxed 20 percent VAT on fees for school terms starting in January 2025. The NNC motion lists a number of questions to pose to the Government, including asking about the estimated numbers of pupils moving into state-sector schools in the area, the extra home to school transport that would be needed and if it would help with extra funding to cope with the predicted increase of pupils in state school.

Proposing the debate, Conservative Councillor Philip Irwin said: “Many parents in North Northamptonshire have chosen independent schools for their children to provide a supportive environment that aligns with their values. The proposed increase could force many of these institutions to close, leading to a significant number of pupils applying for places in our state schools.

“In view of the potential influx of thousands of students into an already strained state education system, we need to minimise the disruption to these children’s education and the impact on the education of others. This data is essential for us to understand the scale of the challenge we face.”

Councillor Gill Mercer (Cons) called the policy proposed by the Labour Government “short-sighted” and argued that many private schools would have to close because of it.

She continued: “Many SEN children currently attend fee-paying schools as they have smaller classes and assist children who are anxious and who need extra support. Their parents are not well off, but scrimp and save to send their children to a school with smaller class sizes.

“These parents are unlikely to be able to afford an extra 20 percent, which many schools will have to pass on to parents. We will have even more competition for the limited number of SEN places in our state schools.”

Leader of the NNC Labour Group, Councillor Matt Keane, responded: “This is a tax that disproportionately affects the people that can pay it the most. The numbers going to private school have not changed in decades. It’s always been around seven percent, and that’s despite big inflationary increases and fees.

“It costs £30,000 a year for a year 11 student at Oundle and £19,000 for one at Wellingborough. If you have that disposable income to pay, you are likely to be able to pay the VAT.

“You pay VAT on holidays, watches and cruises, so why not pay VAT on school fees? This motion is completely out of touch with the 93 percent of students who need significant investment into state schools - an investment that will come from this 20 percent VAT charge.”

Conservative Councillor King Lawal suggested that Labour had failed to mention an “avalanche effect” of thousands of students being priced out of private education and flooding into an “already over-stretched state system”.

Councillor Charlie Best (Lib Dem) disputed his claim, saying no one truly knows what the effect will be: “The Government will have done a lot of research on this and a lot of surveys. I think a much more useful motion would be to say that when this legislation is implemented we monitor for the next 12 months how many children actually transition.

“Then we look to take the appropriate and sensible measures, rather than running off at half-cock on the assumption that it’s an avalanche and it’s going to cause huge disruption.”

A study by the Institute for Fiscal Studies suggests that if a VAT rate were added, private schools could lose between three percent and seven percent of pupils nationally. It found that the state sector could “easily accommodate” extra students given that pupil numbers across England are in decline.

However, Councillor Lee Wilkes, who seconded the motion, clarified that it wasn’t about getting the Government to reverse its decision, but instead asking the government to share its research so the authority could begin planning.

Cllr Irwin summed up: “There’s no one in this chamber who doesn’t think every child matters and we’re thinking not just of the children impacted immediately by this VAT increase, but also by the children in the schools to which they will be going.

“There will be an impact. All this motion is doing is saying can we please see some information.”

The vote was passed with 44 members agreeing that the leader should write a letter, 11 voting against it and one abstention.