YouGov projects Labour wins in Corby and East Northants, Kettering and Wellingborough and Rushden as MRP models General Election voting intentions
The first General Election projection estimating the results on July 4 has been published by YouGov – and it predicts all three seats in north Northants to return Labour MPs.
The international research data and analytics technology group asked voters across the country – 53,334 adults in England and Wales, and 5,541 in Scotland – the question: ‘If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?’
Results from the poll produced projections show Labour candidates winning in the Corby and East Northants, Kettering and Wellingborough and Rushden constituencies after boundary changes in 2024.
Corby and East Northamptonshire
The results predicted that in Corby and East Northants Lee Barron (Lab) could poll 47.9 per cent of the vote ahead of Tom Pursglove (Con) who has been projected to gain 31.6 per cent.
Other projections are Reform (11.3 per cent), Green (4.5 per cent) and Liberal Democrat (3.9 per cent).
At the last General Election in 2019 the Corby constituency was won by Tom Pursglove with 33,410 votes (55.2 per cent).
Kettering
The results also predicted that in Kettering Rosie Wrighting (Lab) could poll 38.9 per cent of the vote ahead of Philip Hollobone (Con) who has been projected to gain 34 per cent.
Other projections are Reform (12.9 per cent), Liberal Democrat (6.9 per cent) and Green (5.6 per cent).
At the last General Election in 2019 the Kettering constituency was won by Philip Hollobone with 29,787 votes (60.3 per cent).
Wellingborough and Rushden
YouGov projected that in Wellingborough and Rushden Gen Kitchen (Lab) could poll 40.2 per cent of the vote ahead of David Goss (Con) who has been projected to gain 34 per cent.
Other projections are Reform (14.5 per cent), Liberal Democrat (6.3 per cent) and Green (4.8 per cent).
This year’s February by-election saw Gen Kitchen poll 13,844 votes (46 per cent).
The data used varies from seat-to-seat, but a minimum of 35 people in each constituency are polled.
YouGov says they can’t ask everyone in a constituency how they would vote, and that models are not as accurate a result as a full-scale poll in each seat.
They say: “However, the sample size in each constituency is not all that important given that the demographics of each constituency – based on census data – are what is actually used to map voter data into each constituency.
“The model, which uses survey data from almost 60,000 respondents, is designed to tell us what would happen if the general election were happening right now, with people’s vote intention (or lack of) as it currently stands. It is not a forecast, but is designed to give a detailed, seat-by-seat look at the British political landscape as we head toward July 4.”
The overall results projected that Labour could win with a majority of 194 seats – bigger than their 1997 General Election landslide.