Here's how experts crunched a whole lot of numbers to conclude Northampton faced a big Covid-19 problem

County Council chiefs have revealed the complex combination of numbers which highlighted Northampton as possible Covid-19 hotspots.

Public Health England listing the town as "an area of concern" shocked many at a time when the number of positive tests appeared to be falling.

But a string of other factors including links between localised outbreaks, recent regional trends and rising infection rates in nearby areas were all added in to the mix.

Commuters going between Northampton and "higher-risk areas" Leicester, Luton, Peterborough, Oxford and Bedford, potentially helping the virus to spread, was another consideration.

All that led health officials to conclude they needed to ramp up testing county-wide to ensure those with the virus and anyone coming into contact with them self-isolated to reduce the risk of a local lockdown.

Northamptonshire County Council can access a huge bank of data produced by PHE to keep watch on coronavirus. It includes:

■ Dashboard showing statistics on cases of Covid-19 and deaths associated with it in the UK

■ Excess mortality in England weekly reports, broken down by age, sex, region, ethnic group, level of deprivation, cause and place of death

■ National Covid-19 surveillance reports, including weekly summary of findings monitored through various surveillance systems

■ Outbreaks in care homes, a weekly number and percentage of care homes reporting a suspected or confirmed outbreak of Covid-19 to PHE by local authorities, regions and PHE centres

■ Wider impacts of Covid-19 on health monitoring tool, which collates metrics across a range of wider impacts to provide stakeholders with a single point of access

Council officials also have secure access to portals which have a range of relevant data on Covid-19, including postcode level, testing, case and contact tracing data all updated daily.

The number of positive tests in each local authority area is published daily. But most of the other data goes unseen by the general public.

Epidemiologists at PHE collate data for local officials to study daily and use their local intelligence and knowledge to make a judgment call on what action needs to be taken. Health secretary Matt Hancock can also step in if he feels any action is not enough.

HERE'S THE ADVICE YOU NEED TO FOLLOW IN AND AROUND NORTHAMPTONSince a local approach to dealing with the pandemic was adopted, even the smallest outbreak can make a big difference to the overall picture.

Government figures showing single-figure numbers for positive tests in the town on ten out of 11 successive days, and infection rates which appeared to follow regional figures, prompted many in Northampton to dismiss any danger of a bigger spike looming.

But health chiefs say they are happy to be criticised for over-cautioun rather than act too late to stop spikes similar to that which forced Leicester and parts of Greater Manchester into a second lockdown.

Borough Council leader Jonathan Nunn said: "Potentially you are at a higher risk if you spend time in Northampton than in other parts of the country and those facts are irrefutable.

"I’d sooner be called scaremonger than in two or three months time be asked why I did nothing when people died or businesses closed."