Where Northamptonshire stands on Boris' road out of lockdown

All the factors Government boffins will be studying before Monday's big announcement
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Boris Johnson and his team of boffins have their thinking caps on ahead of Monday's big announcement of how and when lockdown restrictions will be lifted.

Despite pressure from all sides, the Prime Minister says he will only ease the current measures when it is safe to do so and any dates he gives on the roadmap out of lockdown could be changed.

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A spokesman for No10 revealed five factors being looked at will include:

Boris Johnson will reveal his 'roadmap out of lockdown' on Monday. Photo: Getty ImagesBoris Johnson will reveal his 'roadmap out of lockdown' on Monday. Photo: Getty Images
Boris Johnson will reveal his 'roadmap out of lockdown' on Monday. Photo: Getty Images

■ Infection rates and the transmission rates of the virus.

■ The number of people that are being hospitalised

■ How many people are currently in hospital and the number of people who are sadly dying from the virus.

■ The latest R number.

How Covid case rates have fallen across Northamptonshire since peaking on January 8. Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/casesHow Covid case rates have fallen across Northamptonshire since peaking on January 8. Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
How Covid case rates have fallen across Northamptonshire since peaking on January 8. Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases

■ The imapct of the vaccination roll-out.

Here's how Northamptonshire is faring in each of those categories:

R rate

The R number gives an indication of how fast the virus is spreading but is only calculated nationally and regionally — so Northamptonshire does not have its own R number..

Town centres have been largely deserted during lockdown with non-essential shops closedTown centres have been largely deserted during lockdown with non-essential shops closed
Town centres have been largely deserted during lockdown with non-essential shops closed
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Latest figures for the R number in the Midlands is between 0.7 to 0.9 and the daily growth figure is -4 per cent to -2 per cent

An R value between 0.7 and 0.9 means that, on average, every 10 people with the virus will infect between 7 and 9 others.

On January 8, the Midlands R number was between 1.1 and 1.4 indicating that every ten people with the virus would infect between 11 and 14 others.

A growth rate of between -4 per cent and -2 per cent means that the number of new infections is shrinking by between 2% and 5% every day.

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UK estimates of R and growth rate are averages over different epidemiological situations and should be regarded as a guide to the general trend rather than a description of the epidemic state. .

Number of people being hospitalised

Northamptonshire's two main hospitals are still busy treating Covid-19 patients with 346 being admitted in 14 days — enough to fill a third of the available beds — up to February 6 according to NHS data.

The peak daily admissions was 43 on January 12, four days after the number of positive tests in the county hit its highest point.

The equivalent figure was 32 on February 6, although the number for Northampton General Hospital actually increased by four to 28.

Number of people currently in hospitals

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Last Friday, 193 patients with Covid were being treated in NGH and Kettering General Hospital which is less than half the 422 when cases peaked in January.

On the down side, however, the number of patients in high-dependency beds is still going up and coronavirus patients are staying in longer as knowledge of the virus and ways of combating it improve.

Kettering General Hospital chief executive Eileen Doyle said last week: "Less encouraging is number of patients requiring the highest level of intensive care has slightly increased. What that's telling us is those people who get sick from Covid are really sixk from Covid."

Number of people who are sadly going to die from the virus

Lockdown sceptics will point to the fact that fewer coronavirus patients are dying in hospitals than was the case in January.

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Yet the sobering number of people losing their lives in Northamptonshire was still 80 in 14 days to February 9.

County Council cabinet member Ian Morris told last Friday's weekly media briefing: "We mustn't be complacent. We only have to look at the the number of deaths that are coming down coming down but until they get to zero or near zero I don't think any of us can rest easy."

Infection rates

Much is made of Corby's "stubornly high" infection rates and the north Northamptonshire town having the highest rate in the country.

Yet they are still down by around two-thirds in a month and have fallen faster than other areas.

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Corby saw 710 cases per week in early January at a rate of 983.1 per 100,000 people. By February 1 that was down to 280 cases a week and 387.7 per 100,000 people, according to official figures.

Across Northamptonshire, there were 5,196 cases in the week up to January 8 at a rate of 689.8 per 100,000. That dropped to 1,680 cases at a rate of 223 by February 9.

Just one problem, the England average on the same day was 167.6 cases per 100,000.

Vaccinations

Northamptonshire had delivered first doses of Covid-19 vaccine to 97 per cent of over-75s by February 8 and were only around 8,000 short of completing all the over-70s, too.

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On Friday, the government announced that people aged 65 to 69 and those who are clinically vulnerable will be invited to book their jab as the roll-out continues to include the next five priority groups — those aged between 50 and 69 plus those deemed "clinically vulnerable" with underlying health conditions which put them at greater risk of serious disease and death.

The Government wants everyone in the top nine groups to be offered a first dose before May.

Downside: there is an estimated 1.1million first and second doses still to go to everyone over the age of 16 in Northamptonshire.

Local teams jabbed around 30,000 arms in one week, which means the job might not be done until October — around the same time the initial recipients may well be needing booster jabs.