Five key factors which will decide if Northamptonshire faces stricter Covid restrictions in Tier Three

These are the five key factors which will decide if Northamptonshire goes into the highest tier of Covid-19 restrictions from next week.

Northampton Borough Council leader Jonathan Nunn warned last week: “We know we are in trouble where the numbers are going. We almost have to be ready to expect being put into Tier Three as there is a very strong possibility."

Tier Three restrictions would mean no mixing of households, pubs and restaurants could only operate as takeaways and fans banned once again from sporting events.

Experts from the Joint Biosecurity Centre, Public Health England and the NHS monitors the number of new infections, positivity rates, and pressures on health services.

NOW READ THIS: How the number of Covid cases varies across NorthamptonshireThey are due meet and review the Covid Winter Plan by Wednesday (December 16).

Their verdict will be passed onto Government ministers for the final decisions on which — if any — areas will have risk levels raised or lowered.

Final decisions on tiers are made by the Prime Minister at the Covid Operations Committee and are expected to be announced by Thursday with new rules coming into force at the weekend.

Here are the five factors being considered and what we know about how Northamptonshire is faring in each category.

■ Case detection rates in all age groups

Numbers of positive tests across Northamptonshire is already heading back to where it was before the last lockdown at the beginning of November — and are much higher in Northampton borough.

The seven-day rolling rate of positive tests in Northampton reached 223.5 per 100,000 people by December 8. That is on a par with London, which seems certain to be moved into Tier Three.

London is an upper tier authority with rates ranging from under 100 to over 400 in different boroughs — but all of neighbouring Warwickshire was put into Tier Three on December 2 as a result of high case rates in a few areas.

Cliftonville & Rushmere currently has the highest rolling rate in Northampton at 419 new positive tests per 100,000 people.

■ Case detection rates in the over-60s age group.

The number of positive tests among the older age groups has levelled off, but is still more than double what it was when the second lockdown was announced.

Latest figures from Public Health Northampton showed 1,029 positive tests among over-60s in the four weeks from November 9 to December 6. The equivalent figure on November 1 was 480.

Northants' Public Health Director, Lucy Wightman, admitted last week: "I am deeply concerned about the rising trend of cases as the vulnerable older population of 60-plus tend to be at greater risk of more severe disease."

■ The rate at which cases are rising or falling.

Northamptonshire's seven day rolling rate has risen by around 14 per cent since it bottomed out towards the end of the lockdown. But in Northampton, the numbers have risen by a whopping 43 per cent.

The county's weekly rate peaked at 241.7 positive tests per 100,000 people on November 12 but fell back to 125.6 on December 1. Latest Government figures put the rate at 142.6 on December 8.

In Northampton, however, the rates fell from 292.5 to 156.3 but have since climbed to 223.5.

■ Positivity rate — the number of positive cases detected as a percentage of tests taken.

Currently, 5.3 per cent of tests carried out across England are confirmed positive by labs.

This figure is not included in the weekly surveillance report published by Public Health Northamptonshire although numbers given ten days ago ranged from more than five per cent to over nine per cent across the seven boroughs and districts of Northamptonshire.

■ Pressure on the NHS, including current and projected occupancy.

Numbers of Covid-positive patients occupying beds in Northants two main hospitals is now only fractionally below what it was at the peak of the pandemic in April.

But staff at Northampton and Kettering are also dealing with spikes in admissions from patients with other ‘winter conditions’.

NGH chief executive Deborah Needham said on Friday: “Winter pressures and the high number of patients who have become seriously ill with Covid-19 during the second wave of this pandemic mean we are operating with most of our beds full."

Northamptonshire hospitals also saw 69 deaths among coronavirus patients in the two weeks to Friday December 11 while 21 Covid-related deaths among residents were reported during a ten-day period to December 4.