Corby battleground election poll prediction

Labour candidate Andy Sawford wins the Corby By-election. ENGNNL00120121116172958
Labour candidate Andy Sawford wins the Corby By-election. ENGNNL00120121116172958

An influential poll has predicted that the Corby and East Northamptonshire seat will be held by Labour at next year’s general election - with huge UKIP gains.

The Lord Ashcroft poll, released this morning, shows that Labour candidate and sitting MP Andy Sawford is predicted to hold the seat with 40 per cent of the vote.

The survey also said that Conservative prospective parliamentary candidate Tom Pursglove will take 30 per cent, with UKIP candidate Margot Parker expected to take around 21 per cent.

It is thought the Liberal Democrats will take five per cent, with other parties will make up the remaining four per cent of the vote.

In the most recent parliamentary election in the constituency, a by-election following the resignation of tory MP Louise Mensch in 2012, Labour won with 48 per cent of the vote and the Conservative candidate Christine Emmett took 27 per cent.

Margot Parker, the UKIP candidate, won 14 per cent of the votes with the remainder split between a further 11 candidates.

The poll was undertaken in 11 marginal seats around the UK that are expected to be a major battleground for the main parties.

If the election goes as predicted then it will represent a 6.5 per cent swing from Conservative to Labour since the 2010 general election and a 5.5 per cent swing in the same direction since the 2012 by-election.

The full data is available here